Rising sea levels could inundate the US coast by 2050, NASA predicts
Sea levels are likely rising faster than previously thought, meaning low-lying coastal cities in the US could flood much more regularly in the coming decades, a NASA study has revealed.
According to the study, which analyzed three decades of satellite observations, sea levels along the contiguous U.S. coast could rise as much as 12 inches (30 centimeters) above current water lines by 2050, the research team it said in a statement (opens in new tab). The Gulf Coast and Southeast are expected to be hardest hit and will likely experience increased storm surges and tidal flooding in the near future, according to the study, published Oct. 6 in the journal Communications Earth and Environment (opens in new tab).
The findings support the “high-end” scenarios laid out in February at the multi-agency Sea Level Rise Technical Report (opens in new tab). The report suggested that “significant sea level rise” could hit the US coast within the next 30 years, predicting an average of 10 to 14 inches (25 to 35 cm) of rise for the East Coast; 14 to 18 inches (35 to 45 cm) for the Gulf Coast; and 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 cm) for the West Coast.”
The NASA study builds on the methods used in the earlier multi-agency report and is led by a team of researchers and scientists based in Jet Engine Laboratory (opens in new tab) in California, which is dedicated both to exploring the deepest reaches of space and to using satellites to “advance our understanding” of Earth.
The NASA study used satellite altimeter measurements of sea surface height and then correlated them with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (opens in new tab) (NOAA) tide records from more than 100 years ago. As a result, NASA can confidently state that its satellite readings are not anomalous and are fully supported by findings on the ground.
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While the results of the new study are undoubtedly cause for concern, Jonathan Overpeck (opens in new tab)an interdisciplinary climate scientist at the University of Michigan who was not involved in the research suggested that the predictions were by no means unexpected.
“NASA’s findings seem solid and not surprising. We know sea-level rise is accelerating, and we know why,” he told Live Science in an email. “More and more polar ice is melting, and that’s on top of the oceans expanding as they warm.” It is clear that sea level rise will worsen as long as we let it climate change continue.”
This point of view is shared by David Holland (opens in new tab)physical climate scientist and professor of mathematics at New York University, who was not involved in the study. “The quality of the satellite data is excellent, so the findings are reliable,” Holland told Live Science in an email. “The study shows that the world’s oceans are rising, and more than that, the rise is accelerating. The projected rise for the Gulf Coast of about 1 foot by 2050 is huge. It can do that hurricane-the storm surges even worse than it is now.”
Other factors may also contribute to sea level rise along the U.S. coast. The study shows that the problems associated with sea-level rise may be “amplified by natural variations in The Earth“, as the effects of El Niño and La Niña by the mid-2030s, with every US coast facing “more intense tidal flooding due to fluctuations in moonorbit that occurs every 18.6 years,” the statement said.
The effects of El Niño — the warming of surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near South America, which can lead to increased precipitation — and La Niña — the cooling of surface ocean waters in the Pacific Ocean — can make accurately predicting sea level rise a challenge. and can potentially skew readings. Ben Hamlington, head of NASA’s sea-level change team, noted that natural events and phenomena will always need to be taken into account, and said any predictions will inevitably be refined as satellites collect data over time.
Despite the study’s bleak findings, some experts hope that impactful, high-profile research like this will force decision-makers to focus on addressing the ongoing climate crisis and encourage the public to demand effective measures.
“It’s impossible to ignore. I think this [increased flooding] is catalyzing action as many coastal communities discuss these issues and how they are responding,” said Robert Nichols (opens in new tab), director of the UK’s Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research, who was not involved in the study. “We have the means to address this mitigation challenge to stabilize global temperatures and slow — but not completely halting — sea-level rise, which will unfortunately continue for centuries due to warming up we’ve already experienced it.”
Ultimately, humanity will have to adapt as climate change alters our planet’s oceans and seas.
“It could involve retreating in some places, raising ground in other places, and defending in other places,” Nichols told Live Science. “There is no one-size-fits-all solution. If we follow this path, the future is manageable. Similarly, if governments and society ignore these problems, the future will be a real mess.”
